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02.05.2023 02:01 PM
US premarket trading on May 2, 2023. US stock market may fall
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Futures on US stock indices declined slightly after Australia's Reserve Bank raised rates sharply and hinted at a continuation of the tightening cycle. Futures contracts on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq each dipped by another 0.2% after both indices closed with a slight decrease on Monday. The European Stoxx 600 index fell by 0.4% due to growth-sensitive energy and real estate sectors.

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As for the American banking sector, turbulence eased after the agreement by JPMorgan Chase to buy struggling First Republic Bank. However, investors are concerned that lending will still be significantly restricted, slowing down the economy already under pressure from the most aggressive rate hike campaign in recent decades. Eurozone data reinforced those fears, showing that banks have cut lending more than expected.

The Federal Reserve is anticipated to raise rates by a quarter point in the course of a two-day meeting beginning today. Meanwhile, amid a further increase in eurozone inflation, the European Central Bank is likely to hike rates by 50 basis points at a meeting this week.

Inflation will probably remain high and continue to put pressure on most central banks, and the global economy will have to adapt to new norms.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.85%, stating that inflation remains too high and further tightening may be required. This pushed the Australian dollar up by 1.2% and raised the Australia 3-year government bond yield by more than 20 basis points.

At the same time, the yield on Treasury bonds fell after a sharp spike at the end of Monday. The bond yields of Germany, France, and Italy initially rose by 10 basis points across the curve and then fell to 5-6 basis points.

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Oil prices stabilized after previous losses caused by concerns about China's economic outlook and the impact of banking woes in the US. So far this year, prices have already fallen by more than 5%.

Technically, the volatility of the S&P500 has decreased. It is unlikely that the index will go above the annual highs before the Fed meeting. The bulls need to stay above $4,150, from where a surge to $4,184 may take place. No less important for the bulls is to maintain control over the $4,208 level, which will strengthen the new bull market. In case of a downward movement amid increasing risks of further rate hikes and recession, a breakout through $4,150 and $4,116 would quickly push the trading instrument back to $4,091, targeting $4,064.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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EUR/USD 分析 - 4月11日 在4小時的歐元/美元圖表中，波形結構已轉變為看漲。我相信無疑是由於美國的新貿易政策導致了這一轉變。
Chin Zhao
18:33 2025-04-11 +02:00
1150
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USD/JPY：4月11日（美國交易時段）初學者交易者的簡單交易技巧 日圓交易分析與建議 143.49 價位水平的測試恰好與MACD指標剛開始從零線向下移動的時刻吻合，這確認了市場的一個正確進入點。結果，該貨幣對向142.22的目標水平下跌。
Jakub Novak
18:26 2025-04-11 +02:00
1135
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