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15.11.2022 03:20 PM
US inflation keeps a high chance of recession next year
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Meanwhile, US stock indices are recovering on the back of good reports from Walmart, economists predict that US inflation will be higher than last month, and the chances of a recession continue to increase amid rising borrowing costs.

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Forecasts for the personal consumption expenditure price index — the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation — were revised higher and higher after each meeting. Nevertheless, during the year, there has been a sharp decrease in price pressure. The PCE price index will average 2.8% in the last three months. This was due to sluggish economic activity and higher interest rates.

Forecasters also raised quarterly expectations for the so-called core fixed asset price index, which excludes food and energy costs and the consumer price index. Meanwhile, the probability of a recession next year continued to grow, increasing to 65% from 60% in October.

Premarket

As noted above, Walmart shares rose 6.9% in premarket trading after the retailer reported higher-than-expected quarterly earnings and that store sales beat estimates. Walmart also announced a $20 billion stock buyback program.

Vodafone's securities fell by 4.1% in the premarket after the mobile operator lowered its revenue forecast, pointing to the difficult economic situation.

Getty Images' shares fell 11.8% in premarket trading as its quarterly revenue fell short of economists' and Wall Street's forecasts. However, the operator of the visual content market was able to show a profit that exceeded the consensus forecast.

Home Depot's securities sank 1.1% in the premarket after the company exceeded revenue forecasts but only confirmed its profit forecast for the full year without revising it.

Energizer and Rayovac rose 10% in premarket trading after better-than-expected quarterly results.

Estee Lauder is reportedly close to a $2.8 billion deal to buy Tom Ford's fashion company. This will be the largest acquisition of a cosmetics company. Estee Lauder rose 2.1% in the premarket.

As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the market stabilized a little after yesterday's sharp collapse at the end of the day. The main task for buyers now is to maintain the $3,968 support. While trading will be conducted above this level, we can expect continued demand for risky assets. This will create good prerequisites for strengthening the trading instrument and returning $4,000 under control. The level of $4,038 is located slightly higher. A break in this area will strengthen the hope for a further upward correction with an exit from the resistance of $4,064. The most distant target will be $4,091. In a downward movement, buyers must declare themselves at $3,968. A breakdown of this range will quickly push the trading instrument to $3,942 and open up the possibility of updating the support at $3,905.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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