Analisis Forex & Kajian: 16.06.2021 - Data on inflation in England...

16.06.2021 04:04 PM

Data on inflation in England supported the pound.

The pound feels very confident on Wednesday. The growth was stimulated by the news that caught investors by surprise: British inflation exceeded the Bank of England's target, which accelerated in May to 2.1 %. Given that the UK has long intended to open its economy and finally recover from the devastating effects of the pandemic, this already high inflation rate is quite willing to continue its growth. It means that a change in the political course of British politicians is just around the corner.

The British currency, which is currently one of the most important against the US dollar, added 0.20% and reached 1.4108.

Against the euro, the pound initially rose in price but soon dropped by 0.26%.

And although the published inflation rate in the United Kingdom is the highest since July 2019, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, still assures the public that this data will not be sustainable and will necessarily change to lower ones. Bailey and most of his colleagues are convinced that the UK central bank can still afford to look at this data without resorting to reducing its large stimulus programs. Analysts suggest that the Bank of England will leave its policy course unchanged on June 24.

In addition, chief economist Andy Haldane acknowledged that the current situation is the most dangerous since 1992. Recall that the British government excluded its currency from the European exchange rate mechanism, preceding the euro.

The release of inflation data, which exceeded analysts' expectations, also affected the yield on 2-year UK government bonds, which quickly jumped by almost one basis point and reached 0.11% from a monthly high.

And although such rapid inflation in the UK has supported the British currency, its growth is still strongly limited by the meeting of the US Federal Reserve or rather the expectation of its results. Today, Fed officials are expected to finally discuss ways out of the crisis-era policy and hint at a tightening of monetary policy. If the signals about the curtailment of QE still arrive, new buyers will turn to the dollar, and there will be a period of its steady upward trend, approximately for the next six months. The rise of the dollar will reduce investors' risk appetite, and the fate of the British currency will be unenviable. The pound, being a risky asset, is unlikely to find enough reasons to strengthen, and its quotes will almost definitely and significantly drop.

In addition to the risk of tightening monetary policy in the United States, the growth of the British currency is limited by the continuing risks of deterioration in relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom, which have not yet reached a consensus on the protocol on Northern Ireland.

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Andreeva Natalya,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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